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Report: “1 in 7 Australians now watch no Commercial TV”

Ominous research numbers for commercial networks just as the TV year gets underway.

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More people watch no commercial TV on a normal weekday

Just as the TV year is about to kick off, new research data suggests 85% of us are watching commercial TV in a normal week, but now 1 in 7 Australians watch none.

Roy Morgan Research reports younger Australians are abandoning Free to Air TV at more than twice the rate they were in 2008, leaving the remaining audience growing older.

SVOD is also making a dent, with Netflix reaching over 2.7 million people in over a million homes.

“Commercial TV is now unable to reach around a fifth of all 14-34 year-olds, and the trend looks set to continue. In another seven years,it might well be a third. Already the very idea of ‘seeing what’s on TV’ at a particular time is beginning to seem a little archaic next to the massive libraries of niche, personally appealing content ready—by definition—on demand,” said Tim Martin, General Manager, Roy Morgan Research.

“Commercial TV networks will need to become more innovative with content and scheduling, rights deals and partnerships, how advertising is incorporated into programming. Foxtel has yet to suffer any significant drop-off in lapsed customers, with SVOD so far broadening the paid television market rather than competing with Foxtel.”

Seven years ago, only 6.9% of Australians (14+) wouldn’t watch any Commercial TV on a normal weekday, and there was little difference between age groups. Nearly everyone, regardless of age, would watch at least some show (and advertising) during the day. It was simply a matter of which show reached which people.

Since then, the proportion of Australians who don’t watch any Commercial TV has more than doubled to 14.9%—and the gap is widening between age groups, with 14-34 year-olds making the fastest exodus from the medium. In 2015, over one in five 25-34 year-olds (20.7%) watched no Commercial TV, up nearly threefold from the 7.6% who couldn’t be reached by the channel in 2008. 18.8% of 14-24 year-olds now don’t watch any Commercial TV, up from 7.0% in 2008.

Commercial TV also has less reach among older people, but their abandonment has been slower: 14.1% of 35-49 year-olds and 11.0% of Australians 50+ reported watching no Commercial TV on a normal weekday in 2015 (up from 6.5% and 6.9% respectively).

Of course, this still means that Commercial TV reaches 85.1% of us—more than any other medium. On an average weekday we watch a combined 39 million hours of Commercial TV.

What’s changed though, as certain audiences turn it off faster than others, is just who sees all that broadcasting. In 2008, not only were rates of non-viewing much lower, and more uniform across age groups, but the heaviest viewers (50+) watched only around 26 minutes more on average per day than the lightest (25-34)—and so the reach of Commercial TV, by share of total viewing minutes, quite fairly reflected the population as a whole.

In 2015, nearly half the total time spent watching is by viewers aged 50+ (48.9%, up 6.5% points from 42.4% in 2008). However as a share of the total 14+ population, this group grew just 1.8% points over the period. Less of the total daily time reaches all other age groups: 22.7% goes to 35-49 year-olds (down from 25.1%); 14.4% to 25-34 year-olds (down from 15.2%); and 14.0% to 14-24 year-olds—the sharpest proportional decline.

This shift away from Commercial TV viewing since 2008 coincides with the rise of internet-based entertainment: 7.7 million Australians 14+ (40%) now stream or download video, TV or movies in an average four weeks; among those who don’t watch any Commercial TV, 54% stream or download televisual content—a majority for the first time in 2015.

But aside from being simply a new competitive channel, internet streaming and downloading provided a whole new outlook on media consumption: content on-demand. Now, Commercial TV faces an even more direct competitor, in the form of Subscription Video On Demand (SVOD) including Netflix, Stan, Presto, Quickflix and Foxtel Play.

By the end of last year, almost three million Australians 14+ had access to at least one of these SVOD services. As we reported throughout the year, the spread of SVOD has so far been dominated by Netflix, which alone now reaches over 2.7 million people in over a million homes.

Those in SVOD homes watch, on average, half an hour less Commercial TV on a normal weekday than those without any SVOD. It may still be too early though to conclude that people watch 30 minutes less commercial TV as a result of subscribing to SVOD—perhaps these earliest subscribers were more likely to already be lighter or non-viewers of Commercial TV.

Australians aged 14-24 or 25-34 with SVOD in the home watch 13 minutes less TV on average per day than their counterparts without it, and the difference is even starker among older groups: 35-49 year-old subscribers watch 19 minutes less, and those 50+ watch 33 minutes less Commercial TV—in part because these older SVOD subscribers are, by definition, already atypical of their age group.

These differences in the average time spent watching Commercial TV are, in part, because SVOD subscribers are more likely to watch zero minutes of Commercial TV on a normal weekday, reducing the average: 18.6% watch no commercial TV, compared with the norm (as discussed above) of 14.9%. However, it’s the fewer minutes, not zero minutes, which has the greater impact. On top of the non-viewers, another 43.1% of SVOD subscribers watch up to only two hours of Commercial TV a day (compared with the norm of 34.9%), while only 18.4% watch three or more hours (compared with 28.3% of all Australians).

*Source: Roy Morgan Single Source, January 2008 to December 2015, average annual sample n = 51,442 Australians 14+.

25 Responses

  1. Fetchtv some FTA and Netflix works for my family but I do find we are watching less and less FTA we never watch 10 and 7 and very little of 9 to much crap the commercials have treated the audience badly over the years and this is what happens when you don’t respect the consumer

  2. Blame technology if you want but I believe the writing is on the wall for FTA, it’s a bit like the slow death of landline phones made obsolescent by 4G phones, the broadband streaming of entertainment will eventually be the preferred choice principally because of mobile devices and the opportunity to binge watch shows, plus the updates to 4K and UHD broadcasting which FTA are slow to adopt for cost reasons. The demise of certain personality based news shows may be a consequence but it is doubtful if many younger aged consumers watch them anyway. The advertising industry will no doubt be lobbying hard, the pay TV streaming networks will not want as much saturation advertising as currently seen on FTA so the infomercial digital channels will likely remain.

    1. It’s about evolving. We all still want content. Even people not watching FTA are still watching stories and engaging with characters. TV was supposed to kill off cinema. Then VHS, then DVD, then streaming. But streaming is only showing TV and movies, so they have to come from somewhere. Networks must adapt and they are doing so.

      1. Cinema is being killed off. Australian films, by and large, don’t make money. The distributors aren’t making money, the cinema’s themselves aren’t making money, those funding films aren’t making a return. There’s a reason why Screen Australia are sternly advising producers to pitch films with a $1million or less budget, it’s the only way they have a chance of being profitable. The only reason Hollywood films succeed is due to their global reach. The Australian cinema industry has failed to adapt, the music business failed to adapt 15 years ago, FTA networks have also failed to adapt. They may be doing so now, but I believe it’s too little too late. Through a decade of arrogance and ignorance they’ve alienated key demographics and will pay the price in time.

      2. Also, its not really about the delivery mechanism – FTA, PayTV, streaming; makes little difference.

        The biggest drivers seem to be (a) content (both ease of access, and changing tastes e.g. niche vs broad appeal) and (b) what some researchers call the ‘interruption tolerance’ (i.e. the amount/timing/sizing of interruptions that people will tolerate before leaving).

    1. I’m a little dubious that there’s really a large contingent that “only watch Foxtel”, although it may be a vocal contingent (or, more likely, one that doesn’t realise how much FTA network content it actually watches).

      The figures show that in households with subscription TV, FTA channels still make up ~58% of viewing.

  4. The only FTA I regularly watch lately is SBS2, SBS and a little bit of ABC. SBS2 is a hidden Gem as far as I’m concerned. I do catch bits of The Project while I’m cooking dinner and have started watching X-Files on Ch 10. My partner watched a bit of the Tennis and the adds were absolute torture. That “Feb 1” add made me want to throw things at the TV. I never watch anything on Ch 7 or 9.

  5. This is the elephant in the FTV room. They are becoming irrelevant. In another article on this site a programmer spins beyond belief (it is his job) the crap they’re dishing up like it’s actually good stuff. Surely they must know that they can’t keep on with what they’re doing?
    Advertisers won’t bother with sentimentality – they’ll just move their buying power to wherever the eyeballs go…
    “Live and Local” would give them half a chance. Local as in the market where the transmitter is located – not just Sydney.

  6. Many of the 85% that do watch commercial TV no longer arrange their lives around the TV schedules. Recording devices, “Catch Up” services and the Internet have liberated viewers.

  7. As an oldie, I am in the wrong demography. I will rather watch a few shows on TV, rather than spend hours trying to source good content elsewhere on the net.

    I had SVOD during the trial period and was not all that impressed with the long term prospects for suitable engaging content. So I gave that option up.

    My preference would be to source shows that interest me and pay for individual view. However this option is being blocked by current structures.

  8. Is stopped watching FTA when I got Foxtel 20 years ago. I haven’t even bothered to connect an aerial to the back of the IQ3, nothing I hear or read about the shows on FTA interest me.

  9. Foxtel and Netfix more than cover my needs..
    I occasionally catch The Project, Homeland and I tuned into the X-Files this week.

    I realise there are some decent shows on FTA.. But Fox8, FX, Showtime and SoHo have brilliant drama much better than most new release box office movies.

  10. How can the 8-10 week non-ratings period exist when there is competition like this these days. Giving the networks an excuse to put out poor programming for such a long period is only making it easier for people to watch other options. I could understand 2 weeks around Christmas-New Year but having it extend so long seems ridiculous.

    1. Because there is no 8-10 week non-ratings period. Ratings are surveyed & reported all-year round.

      The ‘official’ ratings periods are mostly a historical leftover from when that wasn’t the case. I’ve long suspected the networks play along with that for 2 reasons. Firstly, it gives them a few defined times of the year when they can all compete to make big noises about launching new shows. Secondly, they can hide the changes in viewing habits over the holidays (it used to be that ratings dropped over summer, but now there’s more of an uptick in ABC & SBS ratings).

  11. Commercial FTA treats viewers so poorly that they just won’t play the same old game any more. I can’t recall the last time a commercial network deigned to advise onscreen of a schedule change or overrun. They show no respect for the media that they use to sell advertising. Programs are clumsily butchered with contempt for both the material and the viewers. And now, when ad breaks aren’t long enough, they have to plaster intrusive, animated garbage over the lower thirds of programs, just because they’ve seen the Americans doing it. Monkey see, monkey do. Little wonder that Australians pirate so much TV, when the commercial networks slop it up like swill the way they do.

    1. Exactly. Apart from a very occasional movie (think it was 2 last year), I don’t watch any Aus commercial FTA other than SBS, which I still watch a fair bit.

      The sole reason for me abandoning 7,9,10 was the compete disregard that they display toward their audiences. One day I finally got jack of it and made other arrangements.

      And I’m gone for good – I won’t be coming back unless they pay me.

        1. ABC’s audience donut shaped. They have a lot of kids watching ad free kids shows on ABC2 and 3, and a lot of >50s watching 7:30, Dr Blake, New Tricks etc. They are seriously worried about a lack of viewers watching the ABC in their 20s and 30s, and what effect that would have on future audiences. Scott formulated specific plans to try and address that.

          There are other factors, irregular hours in service jobs, congestion causing longer commutes meaning people no longer get home in time for the News. And if you aren’t into MKR, The Block, I’m A etc. there is little else on to interest people.

  12. No commercial TV would be overstatement for me, but certainly nothing from 9 or 10 outside of a few multi-channel offerings + Modern Family, X-Files & Good Wife finds its way onto my IQ/HDD and if 7 didn’t have US dramas they’d be absent as well.

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