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US critic tips odds for Fall shows

Which new US shows will work and which won't?

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Australian networks are ramping up their fast-tracking of US shows from the Fall season as early as Tuesday.

It’s hard to remember a time when we’ve seen so much fast-tracking of content. Readers have long encouraged networks to step up the turnaround of US shows. But there are also downsides to fast-tracking. Networks have limited promotional tools to plug the shows and they don’t enjoy any hindsight to programme a show based on how it has performed in the US.

The Fall season is notorious for weeding out its casualties. But the US market is susceptible to many influences, including seeing good shows suffer because they were programmed against big competition.

Factoring in many of the competing interests, The Hollywood Reporter has made some predictions on select shows and how their chances stack up.

The safest bet, they reckon, is The X Factor. At the other end of the scale are Charlie’s Angels and The Playboy Club.

It’s only one opinion, but here’s how they call it:

The X Factor (Fox) – 99:1
Ringer (CW) – 80:1
2 Broke Girls (CBS) – 60:1
A Gifted Man (CBS) – 55:1
Unforgettable (CBS) – 50:1
The Secret Circle (CW) – 50:1
Suburgatory (ABC) – 45:1
Allen Gregory (Fox) – 40:1
Terra Nova (Fox) – 30:1
Person of Interest (CBS) – 30:1
New Girl (Fox) – 30:1
Up All Night (NBC) – 25:1
Once Upon a Time (ABC) – 25:1
Last Man Standing (ABC) – 25:1
How to Be a Gentleman (CBS) – 25:1
Pan Am (ABC) – 20:1
Prime Suspect (NBC) – 15:1
Man Up! (ABC) – 15:1
Free Agents (NBC) – 15:1
Revenge (ABC) – 10:1
Grimm (NBC) – 10:1
Whitney (NBC) – 8:1
The Playboy Club (NBC) – 5:1
Charlie’s Angels (ABC) – 3:1

15 Responses

  2. David, would you be able to do a comparison list on how well these shows performed in comparison to the odds they were given because so far it seems quite interesting – critics have gotten some right but others completely wrong. Thanks

  3. I just watched the promos for all the above shows on youtube and i gotta say, the only ones that i will sit down and watch are; Ringer, A Gifted Man, The Secret Circle, Unforgettable, Terra Nova, Person of Interest, New Girl and Once Upon a Time.

    The CW, Fox and CBS probably made the best choices out of all the networks. I’m surprised that the ABC doesn’t have much quality to offer this year (besides Once Upon a Time).

  5. “They don’t enjoy any hindsight to programme a show based on how it has performed in the US.” Even when they do, Australian TV can’t get it right – they didn’t premiere Law & Order: Los Angeles and No Ordniary Family until after both shows had been cancelled in the US! They might as well fast-track, they don’t show any hesitation in yanking something if it doesn’t do well.

  7. OK…definately not watching Terra Nova and Charlie Angels….not looking good for them staying the distance….and I have been stung once too often…
    I will buy them …perhaps…if they come out on DVD.

  8. Pretty much agree with all of that list. Charlie’s Angels is def the runt of the pack.

    I understand that there are some negatives with fast-tracking but I think the benefits outweigh them. You’ve mentioned the drawbacks from the networks’ perspective. For us viewers, it means that we will occasionally have gaps in series when the US have breaks such as for the Presidential Address or Thanksgiving.

    I still think it’s worth it. It would work even better if the networks simply said at the end of an ep that there was going to be a break and that the series would be returning on [whenever]. Then there won’t be an uproar (or less of one) when people find that their favourite show isn’t on.

  9. Are those odds for the shows working or failing?

    As 3:1 odds for Charlie’s Angels sounds pretty good to me.

    Just like here some of them are more likely to be around longer depending on the network they are on, anything on the CW (like Ringer) is more than likely to be around for it’s first season run, but something on ABC (like Last Man Standing) might not.

    Let the games begin!

  11. For anyone following trailers, reviews and hype there are some surprises here. I’d say the bottom half are accurate, perhaps Pam am could be higher. But very surprised to see unforgettable, suburgatory and a gifted man so high and terra nova, person of interest and new girl so far down the list.

    Also interesting x factor has been included but no other reality shows like H8ER

  12. After watching the previews for Charlies Angels i can see why it is down the bottom of the list. Looks cheap! Hopefully Drew Barrymore’s involvement in the show might bring it some hope.

  13. So NBC and ABC are the whipping boys here – are they the Channel Nine of USA TV? Good news for me, the 2 shows I’m keen for Terra Nova and Person of Interest are pretty high up the list. They might be relatively safe.

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